The Media's Role in Conflict Escalation

The above loop shows how the media through biased coverage incites public fear which in turn causes conflict to continue to rise between the two opposing sides. Extreme and biased media coverage focuses on conflict rather than conflict resolution. Extremely biased coverage causes the public to misinterpret the true story which then ultimately creates public outcry and fear. The increase in public outcry and fear then increases the perceived threat that one side has for another. This fear is created through the public ignorance to the true story due to the media's one sided portrayal of the story. When unbiased and moderate media coverage is used the systems tend to de-fuse because the public is now well informed of the issue which will decrease public outcry and fear and thus decrease the perceived threat that one side has for another. By increasing public awareness the media must continue to not used biased media coverage and thus public fear due to the media will not continue to escalate the problem.

Cash for Clunkers Incentive May Lead to Unintended Consequences

The CLD above shows the mental model behind Blinder's idea that the "cash for clunkers" program will lead to a cleaner environment by reducing the number of older more pollutant cars.  The CLD also shows Levitt's argument that this plan will actually cause owners of older cars to keep than longer than they would have originally in order to receive the full benefits of the program, which would then in turn keep these more pollutant cars on the road longer and reverse one of the purposes of the program which is improving environmental quality.  It seems that Levitt's scenario is likely to occur if the program requires the car to be a certain year, which would definitely make some people hold on to their more pollutant cars longer than they would have originally and this appears to be one of the major driving factors of the loop along with just the number of older cars on the road overall.  Blinder's mental model is shown more specifically by balancing loop number one that is appropriately titled "Cleaning Up the Streets," while Levitt's mental model is represented by reinforcing loop number one which is titled "Clinging to Old Clunkers."  This model shows the unintended consequence that Levitt suggest may occur if this program is implemented.

Overcrowded Prisons in California

Problem Narrative

The number of incarcerated persons in the California State Prison System has soared to astoundingly high numbers over the past four decades; thus, resulting to an immensely overcrowded prison system.  The California State Prison System is not only the largest in the United States but also the most overcrowded one, even despite the fact that California has invested 5.2 billion dollars into building new prison facilities and expanding previously built facilities since the late 1970s (Dungan).  The number of inmates in California in 1977, which was approximately 19,600 inmates increased by nearly eight times this number to approximately 161,000 inmates in 2000 (Dungan).  All of California's 33 prison facilities are overcrowded by at least 150 percent (Dungan).  The astronomical increase in inmates in California is widely attributed to harsher punishments for parole violators, severe mandatory sentences, and California's infamous three strikes law which has placed a little over 40,000 Californians in prison since it was implemented in 1994 (ACLU).  In addition more than half of the persons incarcerated under the three strikes law were non violent offenders and are now serving hefty sentences for crimes such as drug possession and petty theft.  These hefty sentences that are received under the three strikes law keep inmates in the prison system for a longer period of time than they would be serving if it was the first time they committed this non violent offense as opposed to the third one, which ultimately further contributes to the overcrowding problem.  Another effect of the the overcrowded prison system is nonviolent and violent offenders are forced to be housed together, which increases the probability of inmate violence and in turn decrease the chances the inmates will truly become fully rehabilitated.  The overcrowded prisons increase tensions within the prisons and creates an environment that no longer will serve the true purpose they were supposedly built for, which is the rehabilitation of the criminal offenders.

The impact that overcrowding has had on the prisoners and employees in the prison system are entirely apparent and have resulted in a dangerous environment for all.  The pressure of so many prisoners in such confined spaces has induced prisoners to riot and employees to commit shameful and atrocious acts.  If something is not done to stop this cycle the California prison system may not be able to expand enough to accommodate all offenders.

Problem Statement

The number of incarcerated Californian has increased eightfold over the past four decades and has put an immense strain on the housing capacities of the state prison system and ultimately led to atrocious overcrowding in all facilities statewide.

Key Variables

"Hard Variables"

• Number of persons incarcerated yearly
• Number of prison facilities built over time
• Percentage of overcrowding in each specific facility and region of the state

"Soft Variables"

• Public Pressure to lessen crime in CA
• Immense crack down and harsh punishments put in place by CA law makers
• Criminal motivations for committing crimes continuously
• Tensions increased with the prison system on employees and inmates

BOTGs

Sources: 

Overcrowding of the California State Prison System

Problem Narrative

            The number of incarcerated persons in the California State Prison System has soared to astoundingly high numbers of the past four decades; thus, resulting to an immensely overcrowded prison system.  The California 

State Prison System is not only the largest prison system in the United States but also the most overcrowded one, even despite the fact that California has invested 5.2 billion dollars into building new prison facilities and expanding previously built facilities since the late 1970s (Dungan).  The number of inmates in California in 1977, which was approximately 19,600 inmates, increased by nearly eight times this number to approximately 161,000 inmates in 2000 (Dungan).  All of California’s thirty-three prison facilities are overcrowded by at least 150 percent (Dungan).

            The astronomical increase in inmates in California is widely attributed to harsher punishments for parole violators, severe mandatory sentences, and California’s infamous three strikes law which has placed a little over 40,000 Californians in prison since it was implemented in 1994 (ACLU).  In addition more than half of the persons incarcerated under the three strikes law were non violent offenders and are now serving hefty sentences for crimes such as drug possession and petty theft.  These hefty sentences that are received under the three strikes law keep inmates in the prison system for a longer period of time than they would be serving if it was the first non violent offense as opposed to their third non violent offense, which ultimately further contributes to the overcrowding problem.

            The impact that overcrowding has had on the prisoners and employees in the prison system are entirely apparent and have resulted in a dangerous environment for all.  The pressure of so many prisoners in such confined spaces has induced prisoners to riot and employees to commit shameful acts.  If something is not done to stop this cycle the California prison system may not be able to expand enough to accommodate all offenders.

 

Problem Statement

            The number of incarcerated Californians has increased eightfold over the past four decades and has put an immense strain on the housing capacities of the state prison system and ultimately led to atrocious overcrowding in all facilities statewide.

 

Key Variables

            “Hard Variables”

·      Number of persons incarcerated yearly

·      Number of prison facilities built over time

·      Percentage of overcrowding in each specific facility and region of the state

“Soft Variables”

·      Number of persons incarcerated by certain laws such as the three strikes law

·      Specific crimes committed by that lead to incarceration

BOTG

Sources: 

 Dungan, Fred.  "California's Overcrowded Prisons." http://www.fdungan.com/prison.htm

ACLU.  "California's Three Strikes Law Fact Sheet."  http://www.libertyhill.org/common/to_print/3xFACTSHEET2.pdf

HIV/AIDS in Sub Saharan Africa

HIV/AIDS has ravaged Sub Saharan Africa and has effected more than just the health of the people inflicted with the disease.  HIV/AIDS spread so rapidly in this region mainly due to  the people's ignorance of ways to prevent the spread of the disease and also the incapability of these underdeveloped countries to provide treatment for the disease.  These factors continue to increase the damage that the epidemic is dealing on this region.  HIV/AIDS has orphaned millions of children, decreased the work force in the region, and had other affects that put strains on the already struggling Sub Saharan economies.  These direct effects that HIV/AIDS has had on the people of the region have put further strains on trying to control the spread of the disease because the countries have difficulty in spending money on projects and research to control the epidemic.